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12 May 2007
Asia Worries Economic Crisis is Returning


All finance ministers in Asia are concerned over the monetary crisis recurring in this region because recently economic conditions were similar to those before the crisis in 1997. The main indicator is a large-scale capital inflow from the world is entering the Asian region.

According to Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati this was disclosed during the fortieth Asian Development Bank Annual Meeting in Kyoto on 4-8 May. During the meeting, the matter under discussion was the Asian market 10 years after the crisis and how Asia's future is.

The phenomenon, she said, was seen from the high capital inflow to the Asian region due to the abundant funds of the global market. Several countries are experiencing pressure of the capital inflow so the currencies are strengthening sharply such as Thailand’s and India’s.

“Thailand's Baht and India's Rupee are experiencing a very sharp appreciation despite the fact they are both major countries,” said Sri Mulyani in Jakarta yesterday. According to Sri Mulyani, Indonesia must learn from the crisis experience 10 years ago.

Head of the Fiscal Policy Agency, Anggito Abimanyu, said although there is such a risk, the potential of a crisis occuring now is different than in 1996. In that year, the crisis occurred because after the capital inflow, there was capital outflow from Indonesia on a large scale.

“The difference is, now there is no information that isn't monitored by the government,” Anggito emphasized.
Standard Chartered Bank's economist, Fauzi Ichsan, is of the opinion that the concern over the second monetary crisis in Indonesia need no response. The reason is the main indicator that is able to produce such condition is not happening now. “The foreign exchange reserves are already above the amount of hot money in circulation, either at Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI) or other bond institutions,” Fauzi told Tempo. Hot money is a term for money being invested for the short term in Indonesia.

Prior to the first monetary crisis, according to him, Indonesia's foreign reserves was below the hot money amount. Currently, the foreign exchange reserves is already around US$50 billion, or below the hot money that amounts to below US$50 billion.
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